Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
